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Risk Of Dying From Flu

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Infectious Diseases A-Z: Flu vaccine reduces a child’s risk of death

Voxs German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administrations burst of policymaking. .

We also dont know exactly why children are at much lower risk of Covid-19, and the situation could still change a variant could evolve that proves more dangerous to children.

But experts, on the whole, are optimistic so far that childrens natural defenses against the virus have held up. That resilience isnt just good news for parents its a hopeful sign for the future of Covid-19. As the virus becomes endemic, future generations might be regularly exposed to SARS-CoV-2 at a young age. But childrens natural defenses are likely to crush it, building immunity, piece by piece, that could help shield them for a long time. Coupled with the vaccines, the generational buildup in natural immunity could, over time, defang the virus.

Kids Resilience Against Covid

As the world transitions from the pandemic to endemic stage of this coronavirus, childrens natural defenses against Covid-19 could prove crucial providing a relatively safe route to much higher levels of natural immunity across the population.

Over time, as SARS-CoV-2 becomes an endemic virus, basically everybody is going to get exposed to it multiple times by the time they turn 5 or 10, Kissler, the infectious disease researcher, said. The repeated exposure and build-up of immunity it produces could turn the virus into something more like the common cold or seasonal flu than the pathogen thats warped our lives since the spring of 2020.

Obviously, the continued spread among children would be a big problem if kids generally got very sick with Covid-19. Since thats not the case, the process can play out with few risks to kids themselves especially if its bolstered by childhood vaccines.

There are some lingering questions: How durable is natural and vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19? What will be the earliest age at which someone can get vaccinated? Will a new variant overcome the effectiveness of the populations immunity thats been built up? The answers could shape, or completely alter, how the transition to endemic Covid-19 plays out.

In short: The world has been fortunate, throughout the pandemic, that kids arent hit hard by Covid-19. But that luck also may extend to the pandemics aftermath to ensure we can move past the coronavirus once and for all.

When Is The Flu Season

The CDC determines the start and end of flu season by monitoring flu activity illnesses, medical visits, and hospitalizations through its influenza surveillance systems. Most seasons begin in October, peak between December and February, and continue through May. The 2019-2020 flu season was unusual in that flu activity began to decline in March. According to the CDC, this was perhaps associated with community prevention measures for COVID-19.

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What Kinds Of Flu Vaccines Are Available

CDC recommends use of any licensed, age-appropriate influenza vaccine during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Available influenza vaccines include quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine , recombinant influenza vaccine , or live attenuated influenza vaccine . No preference is expressed for any influenza vaccine over another.

Quadrivalent flu vaccines include:

Are any of the available flu vaccines recommended over others?

For the 2021-2022 flu season, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual influenza vaccination for everyone 6 months and older with any licensed, influenza vaccine that is appropriate for the recipients age and health status, including inactivated influenza vaccine , recombinant influenza vaccine , or live attenuated nasal spray influenza vaccine with no preference expressed for any one vaccine over another.

There are many vaccine options to choose from, but the most important thing is for all people 6 months and older to get a flu vaccine every year. If you have questions about which vaccine is best for you, talk to your doctor or other health care professional.

Who Should Vaccinate?

Everyone 6 months of age and older should get an influenza vaccine every season with rare exception. CDCs Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has made this recommendation since the 2010-2011 influenza season.

More information is available at Who Needs a Flu Vaccine.

Who Should Not Be Vaccinated?

When should I get vaccinated?

Case Fatality Rate Of Other Diseases

Estimating the Risk of Death from COVID

Once again, we should stress what we discussed above. One has to understand the measurement challenges and the definitions to interpret estimates of the CFR for COVID-19, particularly those relating to an ongoing outbreak.

As comparisons, the table shows the case fatality rates for other disease outbreaks. The CFR of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were high: 10% and 34%, respectively.13

The US seasonal flu has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1% to 0.2%.14

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How Flu Affects People With Cancer Or Other Serious Illnesses

People with chronic disease or who have weakened immune systems are also at higher risk for contracting and developing serious illness from flu, says Dr. Clements. Among those who may be at higher risk for complications from flu:

  • People who have cancer or a history of cancer due to a weakened immune system
  • People with autoimmune disorders due to immune system dysfunction
  • People with asthma due to the risk of triggering asthma attacks
  • People with a history of heart disease or stroke, because flu can lead to inflammation in the body that could trigger a worsening of existing conditions
  • People with diabetes, because it can affect the ability to control blood sugar
  • People who have cancer or a history of cancer, and those with autoimmune disorders, due to a weakened immune system
  • People with asthma, because of the risk of triggering asthma attacks
  • People with a history of heart disease or stroke, because flu can lead to inflammation in the body that could trigger a worsening of existing conditions
  • People with diabetes, because it can affect the ability to control blood sugar

Vaccine Supply And Distribution

How much influenza vaccine is projected to be available for the 2021-2022 influenza season?

Flu vaccine is produced by private manufacturers, so supply depends on manufacturers. Vaccine manufacturers have projected that they will supply the United States with as many as 188 million to 200 million doses of influenza vaccine for the 2021-2022 season. These projections may change as the season progresses. All flu vaccines for the 2021-2022 season will be quadrivalent . Most will be thimerosal-free or thimerosal-reduced vaccine and about 18% of flu vaccines will be egg-free.

Where can I find information about vaccine supply?

Special Consideration Regarding Egg Allergy

People with egg allergies can receive any licensed, recommended age-appropriate influenza vaccine that is otherwise appropriate. People who have a history of severe egg allergy should be vaccinated in a medical setting, supervised by a health care provider who is able to recognize and manage severe allergic reactions. Two completely egg-free flu vaccine options are available: quadrivalent recombinant vaccine and quadrivalent cell-based vaccine.

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Does Getting Flu With Covid Double The Risk Of Death

This statistic was quoted by Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency , in a recent interview.12 The claim is supported by research from Public Health England, published in August 2021 in the International Journal of Epidemiology,13 which found that patients with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus coinfection were around twice as likely to die ) than people with SARS-CoV-2 alone.

Covid Death Risk Is 35 Times That Of Influenza

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MONDAY, Feb. 15, 2021 — The risk of death from COVID-19 is more than triple that from seasonal flu, researchers in Canada say.

Their findings are similar to recent studies from the United States and France. The study was published Feb. 10 in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.

“We can now say definitively that COVID-19 is much more severe than seasonal influenza,” said study author Dr. Amol Verma, a researcher in the School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.

“Patients admitted to hospital in Ontario with COVID-19 had a 3.5 times greater risk of death, 1.5 times greater use of the ICU, and 1.5 times longer hospital stays than patients admitted with influenza,” he said in a journal news release. These patients were also more likely to be put on a ventilator.

Verma’s team compared flu- and COVID-related hospitalizations between Nov. 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020 at seven hospitals in Toronto and nearby Mississauga. Both have large populations and high COVID infection rates.

During the study period, there were 783 hospitalizations for flu in 763 patients, and 1,027 hospitalizations for COVID in 972 patients. That represented nearly a quarter of all COVID hospitalizations in the entire province of Ontario during that time.

About 1 in 5 COVID patients was younger than 50, and that age group accounted for nearly 1 in 4 intensive care admissions.

It is true, Verma added, that COVID hits older adults the hardest.

More information

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How Are The Irats 10 Risk Elements Ranked And Weighted

Each of the 10 risk elements provided in the IRAT tool are used by influenza experts to generate risk point elements estimating the potential pandemic risk associated with that criterion. The point scores fall into three general classifications of risk: low risk, moderate risk and high risk.

  • low risk is associated with a point score between 1 and 3
  • moderate risk is associated with a point score between 4-7 and,
  • high risk is associated with a point score between 8-10.

Each of the 10 risk elements also are weighted according to importance to each of the two scenarios: emergence and public health impact.

Potential Emergence Risk

The first scenario is: What is the risk that a novel virus has the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission? The risk elements may be ranked and weighted as follows .

  • Human infections

Baseline Rates Of Non

Weekly all-cause mortality baseline rates, Base1 and Base2 , before and after the 2001 introduction of PCV7 were plotted for each age group . A shift in the estimated baseline all-cause mortality rate from fall and winter toward early spring in the period after the introduction of PCV7 was observed across all age groups. A reduction in the holiday bump of weekly morality rates was observed across all age groups except children. Early summertime peaks in weekly noninfluenza-related mortality rates were observed for children both before and after 2001. For the other age groups, baseline peaks around calendar week 1 were observed.

Baseline rates of noninfluenza-associated all-cause mortality in different age groups before and after the introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, United States, 19972007. A) Persons 017 years of age B) persons 1849 years of age C) persons 5064 years of age D) persons 6574 years of age E) persons 75 years of age or older.

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Vaccination Is The Best Protection Against Flu

Note: See Frequently Asked Flu Questions 2021-2022 Influenza Season for flu and flu vaccine information specific to the current flu season.

The best way to prevent flu is with a flu vaccine. CDC recommends that everyone 6 months and older get a seasonal flu vaccine each year, ideally by the end of October. Children can get vaccinated as soon as vaccine becomes availableeven if this is in July or August. However, as long as flu viruses are circulating, vaccination should continue throughout flu season, even in January or later. More information on flu vaccination timing is available below. Keep in mind that vaccination is especially important for certain people who are higher risk of developing serious flu complications or who are in close contact with higher risk persons. This includes children at higher risk of developing complications from flu illness, and adults who are close contacts of those children.

Flu vaccines are updated each season to protect against the four influenza viruses that research indicates will be most common during the upcoming season. This seasons vaccine has been updated from last seasons to better match circulating viruses.

Types of flu vaccines for children

During the current flu season, CDC recommends annual influenza vaccination for everyone 6 months and older with any licensed, age-appropriate flu vaccine.

How Do People Die From The Flu

Risk of death from COVID

People often mistake the flu for a bad cold, since flu symptoms mimic a cold. When you catch the flu, you might experience coughing, sneezing, runny nose, hoarse voice, and a sore throat.

But flu can progress into conditions like pneumonia, or worsen other chronic issues like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure, which can quickly become life-threatening.

Flu can directly lead to death when the virus triggers severe inflammation in the lungs. When this happens, it can cause rapid respiratory failure because your lungs cant transport enough oxygen into the rest of your body.

The flu can also cause your brain, heart, or muscles to become inflamed. This can lead to , an emergency condition that can be fatal if not immediately treated.

If you develop a secondary infection while you have the flu, that can also cause your organs to fail. The bacteria from that infection can get into your bloodstream and cause sepsis, as well.

In adults, symptoms of life-threatening flu complications include:

  • feeling short of breath
  • difficulty waking up
  • seizures

People with compromised immune systems are at a higher risk of developing complications and possibly dying from the flu.

When your immune system is weakened, youre more likely to experience viruses and infections in a more severe form. And your body will have a harder time not only fighting those off, but also fighting any subsequent infections that could develop.

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What Do We Mean By ‘years Of Life Lost’

Years of life lost is a way of estimating how long someone would have lived, had they not died from COVID-19. To calculate it, we use life tables. These tables tell us the life expectancy of someone at each age for example, they tell us that a man aged 80 in England or Wales could expect to live 8.2 more years, a woman 9.7. If a man aged 80 died from COVID-19 we therefore assume he has lost 8.2 years of life. By summing all these lost years we come up with an overall estimate of the total years lost due to COVID-19.

There are limitations to this method. Primarily, we have used average life expectancies at each age when we know it is likely that those who died from COVID-19 were more likely to have co-morbidities than their peers, and therefore may have had lower life expectancies. We may therefore have overestimated the number of years of life lost. However, our estimates do not include the additional deaths that occurred during the pandemic but were not directly caused by COVID-19.

How Flu Affects Elderly People

Flu results in approximately 40,000 deaths in the U.S. each year, nearly all of which are in the older adult population, according to Theresa Rowe, DO, geriatric specialist at Northwestern Memorial Hospital. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that people ages 65 and older account for between 71 percent and 85 percent of flu-related deaths and 54 percent to 70 percent of flu-related hospitalizations in the U.S.

Dr. Rowe explains some reasons that elderly people are particularly affected by flu:

  • The immune system becomes weaker with age, which makes older adults more likely to become infected, and they are more likely to have a prolonged and severe illness as a result.
  • Older adults are more likely to have chronic conditions like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease , which increase their susceptibility to infections such as flu.
  • Flu can be more difficult to diagnose in older adults, as classic symptoms such as fever, cough and general aches are often not present in this population.

Because of their weaker immune systems, Dr. Rowe recommends adults 65 and older get an annual flu vaccine specially formulated for people in their age group. She says adults should get vaccinated early in the fall if possible, but those who miss that window should still get vaccinated any time during flu season. During flu outbreaks in long-term care facilities, which can be particularly devastating, antiviral medications may be used for prevention of influenza.

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Who Is Most At Risk Of Dying From The Flu

The CDC has a list of people who are at a higher-than-average risk of getting seriously ill with the flu and even dying of it:

  • Adults 65 and up
  • Young children
  • Young children with neurological disease

Certain health conditions can also put people at a higher risk of severe flu, the CDC says, including:

  • Asthma
  • Cancer
  • Chronic kidney disease

The flu tends to kill people at the extremes of age: very young and very old, Dr. Adalja says. The very young and the old may have very low physiological reserve when it comes to fighting influenza off.

How Many People Die From The Flu Each Year

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The answer is slightly complicated: The CDC doesnt have an exact count of the number of people who die from influenza each year. Instead, the federal agency develops estimates based on rates of confirmed hospitalizations from the flu.

For that reason, its difficult to compare flu deaths with those of COVID-19, which are actual documented deaths, says , associate professor of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York. In fact, COVID-19 deaths are being tracked by confirmed cases, but there are still going to be numbers of unconfirmed cases so the deaths from COVID-19 are probably higher then what is being reported, Dr. Hicar says. So far, nearly 51 million Americans have been infected with COVID-19, resulting in more than more than 803,000 deaths, per the latest data from the CDC.

Compared to the 2019-2020 flu season, for example, the CDC estimated that more than 38 million became sick with influenza, leading to 400,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths. Thats slightly lower than the 2018-2019 season and significantly less than the 2017-2018 season .

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